* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP132013 09/14/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 47 49 49 53 54 56 54 54 52 51 53 V (KT) LAND 40 44 47 49 49 53 40 32 29 32 30 29 30 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 48 51 54 60 45 34 29 33 33 34 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 18 14 7 11 5 9 9 16 6 18 12 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 0 -2 -4 -2 -5 1 0 -2 -2 N/A SHEAR DIR 59 72 80 71 91 100 107 141 143 108 124 166 N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 158 159 158 157 156 155 154 153 152 152 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.1 -50.4 -51.0 -50.3 -50.9 -50.3 -50.9 -50.1 -50.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 8 10 10 9 12 9 12 9 12 7 N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 81 79 79 81 82 81 81 76 78 74 70 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 16 15 11 10 7 7 6 6 5 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 114 116 104 110 120 124 148 151 136 118 89 48 N/A 200 MB DIV 116 92 91 107 119 73 113 62 59 33 52 20 N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -9 -10 -13 -4 -2 4 0 8 3 6 0 N/A LAND (KM) 258 238 219 177 122 16 -30 -95 -24 39 90 117 N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.4 16.9 18.0 19.0 20.0 20.9 21.8 22.6 23.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.4 102.5 102.5 102.6 102.7 103.1 103.7 104.3 105.1 106.0 107.0 108.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 24 23 21 17 5 49 0 0 22 18 19 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 343 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 24. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -5. -7. -12. -13. -14. -13. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 9. 13. 14. 16. 14. 14. 12. 11. 13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132013 MANUEL 09/14/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132013 MANUEL 09/14/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##