* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INGRID AL102013 09/14/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 58 61 64 69 72 74 74 67 66 63 64 V (KT) LAND 50 55 58 61 64 69 62 41 31 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 55 59 62 64 66 68 40 31 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 24 26 24 11 11 8 3 8 7 3 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 -1 9 1 -3 -1 -2 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 279 282 281 288 292 285 303 214 283 27 33 78 8 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 156 159 158 158 156 156 155 155 152 151 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 140 141 143 141 140 136 136 134 133 130 129 133 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -51.5 -50.9 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -50.5 -50.4 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 9 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 84 82 81 81 81 84 85 86 84 83 85 84 84 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 18 19 18 16 9 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 121 117 95 91 97 89 97 116 119 104 113 80 88 200 MB DIV 97 115 107 84 90 112 99 97 87 63 54 39 46 700-850 TADV 4 2 3 6 4 3 -2 0 -8 -5 -9 0 -4 LAND (KM) 96 123 144 143 123 58 -1 -82 -155 -200 -234 -256 -203 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.1 20.5 21.1 21.6 22.1 22.4 22.5 22.3 22.1 21.9 21.8 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 95.2 95.3 95.3 95.7 96.0 97.0 97.9 98.7 99.4 99.8 100.1 100.3 99.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 3 HEAT CONTENT 14 19 28 37 42 30 5 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 4. 3. 1. -6. -7. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 11. 14. 19. 22. 24. 24. 17. 16. 13. 14. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102013 INGRID 09/14/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102013 INGRID 09/14/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102013 INGRID 09/14/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)