* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/14/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 30 31 28 27 30 35 40 47 53 56 V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 30 31 28 27 30 35 40 47 53 56 V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 30 28 27 24 23 23 25 29 34 40 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 45 44 43 38 35 32 25 19 16 13 15 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 1 0 3 0 0 -1 0 0 4 3 SHEAR DIR 239 248 255 266 263 260 284 277 276 241 239 228 224 SST (C) 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.6 27.0 27.4 27.9 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 113 114 116 118 120 124 128 134 138 138 135 125 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 102 104 106 106 108 110 115 115 114 113 107 99 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.7 -55.1 -55.3 -54.8 -55.0 -55.3 -55.6 -55.4 -55.0 -55.1 -54.9 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 7 6 3 700-500 MB RH 44 42 40 39 39 43 48 45 49 51 56 57 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 16 15 15 18 16 16 19 21 24 26 27 30 850 MB ENV VOR 19 12 8 4 11 11 21 20 16 16 35 22 11 200 MB DIV -1 -2 21 36 23 3 7 0 19 2 18 46 51 700-850 TADV 18 15 9 10 12 5 0 1 7 8 9 17 22 LAND (KM) 1857 1971 2085 2207 2330 2359 2206 2031 1865 1734 1616 1476 1347 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.5 25.8 26.4 26.9 27.7 28.7 30.0 31.3 32.5 33.8 35.8 38.4 LONG(DEG W) 34.8 35.9 37.0 38.2 39.3 41.2 42.5 43.6 44.5 44.7 44.3 43.0 41.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 10 8 8 8 6 7 9 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 2 5 8 5 7 8 8 11 7 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 14. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -3. -1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -4. -7. -8. -5. 0. 5. 12. 18. 21. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/14/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/14/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)