* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP132013 09/14/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 47 46 45 46 46 47 47 47 46 47 V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 47 46 35 30 32 33 33 33 29 28 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 50 52 54 41 33 35 36 37 38 34 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 10 14 15 12 11 9 8 11 10 5 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 0 0 -3 -1 -2 0 1 6 N/A SHEAR DIR 84 87 94 95 114 120 159 153 179 160 225 182 N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 27.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 159 157 156 155 153 152 152 151 141 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.2 -50.5 -50.9 -51.2 -50.4 -50.9 -50.4 -50.8 -50.3 -50.7 -50.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 11 9 9 11 9 12 9 12 7 8 N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 77 78 80 82 81 79 75 72 68 66 60 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 13 10 9 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 97 94 101 105 95 110 93 101 70 62 41 38 N/A 200 MB DIV 104 129 146 83 63 110 57 60 -4 9 5 -1 N/A 700-850 TADV -12 -14 -11 -4 0 1 1 3 1 2 0 0 N/A LAND (KM) 206 180 144 72 16 -24 -52 23 120 150 32 -16 N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.4 18.0 19.0 20.0 21.0 21.9 22.7 23.4 23.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.3 102.5 102.6 102.9 103.1 103.8 104.8 105.7 106.8 107.9 109.1 110.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 6 7 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 19 16 11 4 50 46 17 20 19 17 1 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 13. 17. 20. 21. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -6. -8. -14. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132013 MANUEL 09/14/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132013 MANUEL 09/14/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##