* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP132013 09/15/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 61 61 60 59 59 58 57 54 52 52 52 V (KT) LAND 55 59 61 48 41 32 33 33 31 29 27 26 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 62 51 43 32 34 34 34 34 35 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 9 10 8 17 14 16 8 14 18 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 7 5 3 0 0 1 0 -5 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 85 81 111 120 130 133 161 174 151 199 192 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 158 158 157 154 153 153 154 157 155 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.2 -51.3 -50.6 -50.2 -50.6 -50.1 -50.6 -50.3 -50.7 -50.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 10 11 9 12 9 12 7 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 81 81 80 80 78 75 74 70 68 59 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 12 11 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 95 102 105 120 141 132 131 93 67 54 51 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 118 88 83 101 105 59 57 13 25 19 4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -12 -7 -3 3 5 5 5 4 1 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 144 66 12 -19 -53 -53 9 37 37 67 83 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.4 18.1 18.8 19.4 20.5 21.6 22.7 23.6 24.2 24.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.5 102.9 103.2 103.6 104.0 104.8 105.6 106.4 107.3 108.3 109.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 10 3 50 50 0 22 22 21 20 20 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -3. -3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132013 MANUEL 09/15/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132013 MANUEL 09/15/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##