* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL112013 10/03/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 31 36 40 44 43 41 41 40 39 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 31 36 40 44 43 41 41 40 39 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 28 29 32 36 40 42 43 44 45 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 7 13 12 19 22 21 24 29 32 35 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -5 -4 -2 -4 -1 -3 -2 -4 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 333 326 290 277 267 245 248 246 253 246 257 254 253 SST (C) 26.5 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.4 24.9 24.0 22.9 22.0 21.7 21.3 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 118 116 115 114 112 108 104 98 91 87 86 84 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 102 101 100 98 93 89 85 80 77 75 74 73 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.8 -56.8 -56.8 -56.9 -56.7 -57.2 -57.2 -56.8 -56.8 -57.0 -57.2 -57.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 42 41 42 43 44 43 42 39 41 36 35 40 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -83 -82 -85 -76 -71 -51 -55 -70 -72 -81 -96 -81 -52 200 MB DIV -14 2 3 4 29 6 7 13 26 2 7 10 39 700-850 TADV 7 8 8 3 11 0 6 8 3 2 -3 0 2 LAND (KM) 2096 2083 2075 2088 2109 2063 1935 1853 1752 1541 1306 1095 878 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.6 31.2 31.8 32.4 33.0 33.8 35.1 36.8 38.1 38.8 39.8 40.7 LONG(DEG W) 41.9 40.8 39.7 38.3 36.9 34.3 32.4 30.7 29.0 26.9 24.3 21.9 19.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 13 12 10 9 10 11 11 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 760 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 9. 7. 5. 1. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 18. 21. 23. 25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 6. 10. 14. 13. 11. 11. 10. 9. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 JERRY 10/03/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 JERRY 10/03/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 JERRY 10/03/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)