* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/21/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 113 111 107 104 94 85 77 73 71 71 69 66 V (KT) LAND 110 113 111 107 104 94 85 77 73 71 71 69 66 V (KT) LGE mod 110 112 112 109 106 99 92 84 77 73 71 70 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 15 14 10 9 12 12 11 6 7 7 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -5 -1 0 1 0 -1 0 3 2 4 1 SHEAR DIR 159 171 192 196 184 202 247 250 224 181 173 224 205 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 154 154 156 156 157 157 155 152 148 147 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 60 60 57 57 56 57 53 53 51 49 47 47 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 11 9 10 9 9 10 13 14 17 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 36 43 40 28 17 23 10 0 8 42 31 26 21 200 MB DIV 62 75 46 28 46 57 43 41 42 28 14 -11 -8 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 -2 3 0 3 LAND (KM) 164 163 162 157 153 168 191 246 335 447 579 692 778 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.4 16.3 16.1 15.8 15.6 15.3 15.3 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 102.2 102.3 102.3 102.3 102.3 102.4 103.1 104.0 105.1 106.6 108.4 109.9 111.1 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 0 0 0 2 4 5 6 8 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 21 25 24 26 26 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -12. -17. -21. -26. -31. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -2. -1. 4. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 1. -3. -6. -16. -25. -33. -37. -39. -39. -41. -44. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/21/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/21/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##