* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/23/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 59 56 54 54 55 58 57 57 58 56 59 61 V (KT) LAND 65 59 56 54 54 55 58 57 57 58 56 59 61 V (KT) LGE mod 65 57 52 49 46 43 40 38 38 38 38 39 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 16 17 15 10 10 12 7 4 7 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 0 1 3 -2 3 1 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 185 217 239 254 267 229 204 223 202 236 157 189 178 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 156 156 157 158 156 152 151 148 148 146 143 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -53.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 9 7 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 62 60 61 59 59 57 59 57 54 53 54 58 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 12 13 13 13 16 17 18 20 20 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 6 3 2 1 -3 -18 11 0 9 19 36 37 41 200 MB DIV 52 38 35 56 55 40 38 7 11 14 26 -12 43 700-850 TADV 1 2 3 3 0 2 3 3 0 0 2 0 1 LAND (KM) 148 180 213 238 250 336 433 528 636 769 859 903 943 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.1 15.9 15.9 15.8 15.5 15.4 15.3 15.3 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 101.8 102.1 102.4 102.9 103.3 104.6 106.1 107.6 109.2 110.9 112.7 114.2 115.4 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 4 5 7 7 7 8 8 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 14 15 15 25 29 23 26 19 13 14 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE -7. -11. -13. -14. -13. -11. -9. -7. -6. -6. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 7. 8. 12. 12. 15. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -11. -11. -10. -7. -8. -8. -7. -9. -6. -4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/23/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/23/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##