* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP172013 10/27/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 83 81 77 65 48 36 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 83 83 81 77 65 48 36 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 84 84 82 78 66 54 44 36 30 25 21 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 10 14 20 22 22 20 19 27 29 26 26 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 7 8 8 14 10 14 9 6 5 5 3 SHEAR DIR 174 167 204 218 230 251 250 215 227 220 227 209 203 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 142 142 139 134 129 126 123 120 117 114 113 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 55 61 62 64 64 63 60 58 48 41 39 38 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 23 22 22 22 22 18 16 13 10 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 13 16 19 25 28 20 -1 18 29 56 43 52 28 200 MB DIV 56 87 46 39 51 42 22 61 40 28 27 23 13 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -2 0 2 5 5 5 5 5 6 10 9 LAND (KM) 1172 1153 1136 1092 1051 959 883 831 783 748 694 675 667 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.7 15.1 15.7 16.3 17.3 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.4 19.6 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 116.3 116.7 117.0 117.1 117.2 117.0 116.6 116.3 116.1 116.0 115.7 115.7 115.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 13 10 6 4 2 1 11 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -7. -10. -14. -17. -23. -24. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 1. -3. -15. -32. -44. -58. -71. -85. -94.-100. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172013 RAYMOND 10/27/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172013 RAYMOND 10/27/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##