* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142013 11/20/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 57 58 60 61 52 40 28 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 57 58 60 61 52 40 28 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 53 54 54 54 53 49 43 38 35 33 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 27 26 19 16 10 28 48 50 59 56 45 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 10 3 3 -2 0 12 3 SHEAR DIR 196 201 208 197 189 246 285 280 273 276 288 293 277 SST (C) 22.9 22.0 21.6 20.9 19.7 17.5 16.8 16.3 16.1 16.0 16.0 16.3 16.9 POT. INT. (KT) 96 92 90 88 83 77 73 69 68 68 69 70 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 88 86 84 82 78 73 69 65 63 63 64 65 67 200 MB T (C) -58.1 -57.9 -58.1 -58.6 -59.2 -58.5 -58.2 -58.2 -58.8 -59.3 -59.6 -58.8 -58.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 44 42 41 42 41 44 41 39 38 36 34 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 23 23 23 23 22 24 19 13 8 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 109 100 88 69 97 109 70 34 -20 -57 -74 -72 -22 200 MB DIV 41 44 53 55 49 8 12 -1 4 -8 -15 -22 -32 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -5 -29 -16 0 44 58 27 0 -33 -33 -3 LAND (KM) 1334 1291 1304 1383 1505 1785 1306 1070 1006 893 746 586 349 LAT (DEG N) 35.1 36.4 37.6 38.8 40.0 41.8 43.2 44.2 44.9 45.4 45.3 44.5 43.2 LONG(DEG W) 49.0 46.1 43.1 40.0 36.9 30.8 25.2 22.3 21.4 19.8 17.9 16.1 13.4 STM SPEED (KT) 23 27 27 27 26 23 16 8 5 6 7 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 20 CX,CY: 17/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 771 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 1. -4. -10. -16. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 23. 27. 32. 36. 37. 39. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -23. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -7. -13. -18. -21. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 2. -10. -22. -32. -39. -43. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142013 MELISSA 11/20/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142013 MELISSA 11/20/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142013 MELISSA 11/20/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED