* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142013 11/21/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 52 54 57 54 47 34 22 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 52 54 57 54 47 34 22 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 48 49 50 48 44 39 36 34 33 34 Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 19 15 13 10 21 46 55 58 49 48 44 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 0 2 12 3 0 0 5 1 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 199 191 184 207 230 278 290 289 301 298 293 287 284 SST (C) 21.6 20.9 19.6 18.7 17.8 17.3 16.4 16.9 18.1 18.9 19.6 20.1 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 90 88 83 80 77 75 72 72 75 76 77 78 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 84 82 78 75 73 71 67 67 69 69 70 70 70 200 MB T (C) -58.6 -58.8 -59.5 -59.2 -58.8 -58.5 -59.0 -59.8 -60.5 -60.7 -60.4 -59.7 -59.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 40 42 45 45 47 40 38 38 41 41 38 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 25 25 24 24 25 23 20 15 10 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 89 78 96 96 98 77 42 -7 -17 -2 28 68 68 200 MB DIV 50 37 43 21 12 27 0 -22 -46 -47 -32 -28 -7 700-850 TADV -13 -39 -21 -14 -3 28 41 -4 -23 -33 -52 -29 -20 LAND (KM) 1292 1361 1478 1673 1797 1324 949 714 602 470 389 333 271 LAT (DEG N) 37.5 38.8 40.1 40.7 41.3 42.4 44.0 43.2 40.4 38.5 37.1 35.7 35.2 LONG(DEG W) 43.5 40.4 37.2 34.0 30.8 25.3 20.8 17.9 16.1 14.6 13.3 12.2 10.8 STM SPEED (KT) 27 28 26 25 23 20 14 13 13 10 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 24 CX,CY: 21/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -12. -11. -11. -12. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 0. -8. -14. -19. -23. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 21. 25. 30. 35. 40. 42. 44. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -25. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -3. -6. -11. -17. -19. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 9. 2. -11. -23. -29. -34. -34. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142013 MELISSA 11/21/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142013 MELISSA 11/21/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142013 MELISSA 11/21/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)