* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/05/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 61 67 73 80 89 91 89 85 80 74 71 V (KT) LAND 50 55 61 67 73 80 89 91 89 85 80 74 71 V (KT) LGE mod 50 55 60 65 69 76 80 81 78 73 67 61 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 9 11 10 12 8 10 8 7 7 11 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -5 -2 0 0 0 0 2 3 4 1 5 SHEAR DIR 52 42 39 23 24 44 68 36 6 17 345 324 337 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.6 26.7 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.0 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 145 143 143 145 142 132 128 128 129 126 128 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -51.3 -51.9 -51.2 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 63 64 64 68 69 70 69 66 64 63 60 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 23 25 26 26 27 30 29 30 29 28 27 28 850 MB ENV VOR 34 39 37 37 36 30 39 34 19 15 17 15 22 200 MB DIV 51 64 63 63 70 33 86 30 34 -3 25 15 44 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -6 -11 -7 0 0 -3 -2 2 6 7 17 LAND (KM) 1623 1712 1808 1894 1986 2152 2342 2078 1801 1504 1165 827 481 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.8 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 122.1 123.5 124.8 126.1 127.4 130.0 132.9 135.7 138.3 141.1 144.3 147.5 150.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 14 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 28 20 10 7 8 19 5 1 2 3 1 0 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 13. 14. 13. 12. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 30. 39. 41. 39. 35. 30. 24. 21. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/05/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/05/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##