* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/02/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 72 66 64 57 51 45 43 32 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 76 72 66 64 57 51 45 43 32 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 75 69 65 60 52 47 42 39 35 30 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 12 15 12 16 15 17 24 31 40 43 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 8 8 6 5 0 2 4 1 2 1 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 288 294 278 292 285 267 277 255 257 252 261 256 265 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.0 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 139 138 137 135 134 135 136 136 134 136 137 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -52.3 -52.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 70 68 70 69 69 66 63 62 60 56 56 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 21 18 20 19 18 16 17 12 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 0 1 6 13 19 33 35 46 42 26 19 0 -15 200 MB DIV 22 4 3 -9 -4 10 17 28 17 15 -1 -16 -4 700-850 TADV 9 9 7 8 7 6 4 1 6 8 -3 -6 -5 LAND (KM) 1284 1185 1086 987 888 702 505 307 115 61 82 63 203 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.0 16.3 17.2 17.9 18.7 19.6 20.7 21.8 22.7 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 143.7 144.5 145.4 146.3 147.1 148.6 150.3 152.0 153.7 155.4 157.1 159.0 161.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 10 9 10 17 19 14 24 14 11 18 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -7. -11. -16. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -3. -2. -3. -4. -7. -6. -13. -17. -20. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -14. -16. -23. -29. -35. -37. -48. -58. -65. -69. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/02/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/02/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##