* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962015 08/16/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 43 55 62 69 75 81 86 88 90 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 43 55 62 69 75 81 86 88 90 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 38 47 58 69 77 83 91 97 100 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 3 5 4 3 6 7 5 7 10 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 8 2 0 3 4 3 5 0 -4 -8 -2 SHEAR DIR 115 108 124 54 69 73 164 197 82 104 120 151 161 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.6 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 136 134 131 130 132 136 135 136 136 138 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 138 135 132 130 132 135 134 133 132 134 134 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.4 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 64 64 65 64 64 64 61 64 64 61 53 49 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 8 9 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 60 53 45 40 37 29 16 27 31 40 34 38 20 200 MB DIV 26 57 51 42 52 80 88 98 44 4 -19 -10 -21 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -1 -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -8 -5 -1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1277 1397 1510 1632 1757 1862 1625 1409 1223 1073 976 882 789 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.7 10.9 10.9 11.0 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.0 LONG(DEG W) 28.3 29.4 30.6 31.9 33.1 35.6 38.1 40.4 42.6 44.4 45.9 47.3 48.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 15 15 16 22 17 11 15 24 23 26 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 12. 14. 15. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 30. 37. 44. 50. 56. 61. 63. 65. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962015 INVEST 08/16/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962015 INVEST 08/16/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)