* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922015 09/08/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 48 52 53 62 64 62 60 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 48 52 53 62 64 62 60 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 32 36 41 47 55 59 55 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 21 18 16 16 13 14 8 5 8 5 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 -3 -4 -6 -3 -3 0 -2 1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 251 266 267 250 231 218 191 161 64 3 349 309 276 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.3 25.6 21.0 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 141 141 142 143 136 132 132 130 113 86 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 113 113 113 114 117 114 111 112 111 98 78 85 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -54.9 -55.0 -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -55.3 -55.7 -56.5 -57.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 5 1 1 700-500 MB RH 42 43 43 45 47 50 54 55 54 54 54 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 9 8 6 4 10 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -47 -45 -34 -25 -20 -17 -34 -49 0 8 -35 -54 200 MB DIV -9 -2 1 -18 3 -12 11 16 22 11 34 1 9 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 2 4 6 6 11 4 23 -6 13 -12 LAND (KM) 1396 1402 1409 1405 1400 1382 1266 1101 940 774 611 518 834 LAT (DEG N) 31.0 31.0 30.9 30.9 30.9 31.3 32.5 34.2 36.3 38.8 41.2 43.0 43.6 LONG(DEG W) 61.9 61.8 61.8 61.8 61.9 61.9 61.7 61.1 59.7 57.5 53.9 49.1 43.4 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 0 0 1 4 8 10 14 16 19 20 21 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 15 15 15 13 9 15 16 16 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):157/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. 0. -1. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 23. 27. 28. 37. 39. 37. 35. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922015 INVEST 09/08/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922015 INVEST 09/08/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922015 INVEST 09/08/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)