* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT CP082015 10/04/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 20 20 21 23 28 36 44 49 55 63 V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 20 20 21 23 28 36 44 49 55 63 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 21 20 20 20 22 25 29 35 45 57 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 19 9 6 9 8 7 3 5 5 10 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 5 11 10 1 4 0 -1 -4 -2 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 140 152 164 134 121 138 157 156 134 57 109 111 106 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.3 30.6 30.7 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 162 163 163 163 169 173 173 171 172 171 170 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.1 -51.0 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -50.8 -51.0 -50.5 -51.0 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 58 61 60 59 60 63 67 71 66 66 68 69 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 17 16 14 13 12 11 10 9 9 11 850 MB ENV VOR 189 192 190 187 183 176 178 169 165 152 160 153 170 200 MB DIV -4 14 17 28 28 20 31 33 20 17 22 11 10 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -1 2 1 2 LAND (KM) 1777 1804 1831 1890 1952 2049 2163 2355 3914 3692 3497 3264 3022 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.9 10.9 11.2 11.9 12.6 13.4 13.9 14.1 14.4 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 171.6 172.0 172.4 173.2 174.0 175.4 177.2 179.7 182.7 185.5 187.9 191.0 194.4 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 6 8 7 8 11 14 15 13 14 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 41 42 44 48 53 54 44 52 89 94 101 104 105 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 24. 31. 36. 38. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. -16. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 17. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 3. 11. 19. 24. 30. 38. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP082015 EIGHT 10/04/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP082015 EIGHT 10/04/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##