* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 10/11/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 37 46 55 61 66 68 73 78 83 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 37 46 55 61 66 68 73 78 83 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 45 54 62 69 76 84 97 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 7 5 3 1 2 2 6 2 0 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -1 -3 1 0 3 0 2 2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 35 34 36 43 58 355 296 302 296 242 137 162 206 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 159 158 160 161 161 161 161 158 157 159 159 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 75 72 70 69 66 66 63 63 60 60 61 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 10 12 14 17 19 23 850 MB ENV VOR 25 19 10 3 2 -5 -6 -7 1 -5 10 30 49 200 MB DIV 57 71 58 51 40 48 42 37 46 35 24 49 60 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -3 0 -2 LAND (KM) 894 910 930 957 983 1027 1114 1242 1422 1534 1690 1846 2018 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.8 10.3 10.7 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.3 LONG(DEG W) 101.0 101.9 102.8 103.8 104.9 107.2 109.6 112.3 115.2 118.0 120.9 123.6 126.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 12 12 13 14 14 14 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 21 23 28 49 41 31 65 38 36 20 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 30. 36. 41. 43. 48. 53. 58. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 10/11/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 10/11/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##