* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/25/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 71 67 64 50 36 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 76 71 67 64 50 36 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 77 73 67 62 49 39 30 23 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 20 27 27 19 20 26 15 18 15 10 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 6 8 7 5 15 14 5 0 -5 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 264 245 246 236 278 330 296 290 281 300 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.7 25.0 23.9 23.4 23.7 24.5 25.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 127 125 122 115 102 93 98 108 120 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -51.7 -50.4 -49.8 -49.3 -50.3 -51.3 -52.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 3 2 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 55 51 47 43 43 33 25 17 15 15 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 23 23 25 26 22 21 20 18 14 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 22 33 20 48 42 26 5 -68 -90 -58 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 76 90 67 34 -19 0 -22 -29 -28 -28 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 22 21 22 13 0 -6 -18 -2 -4 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1206 1307 1412 1542 1674 1747 1383 1226 1329 1528 1810 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.9 23.7 24.6 25.4 27.1 28.9 29.4 28.4 26.6 24.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 143.5 142.7 141.9 140.9 139.8 137.1 133.9 132.3 132.3 133.3 134.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 13 14 16 12 4 7 12 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -22. -27. -31. -32. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 1. -5. -6. -8. -11. -16. -23. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -16. -30. -44. -54. -64. -73. -85. -91. -95. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/25/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/25/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##