* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE AL012022 06/04/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 41 44 50 46 40 32 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 32 36 39 45 40 35 27 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 30 33 34 34 31 28 26 25 25 26 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 31 30 34 36 37 40 39 33 35 35 29 40 26 24 21 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 3 -1 4 1 4 -3 3 -7 -5 -9 -7 4 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 225 243 261 256 258 259 251 264 247 258 262 283 279 289 262 317 319 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 28.6 27.1 27.7 27.5 27.3 25.4 23.9 22.3 21.5 21.1 20.5 20.8 19.8 17.6 15.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 147 128 135 133 131 111 99 90 86 83 81 82 79 75 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 125 136 117 124 121 118 100 89 81 77 75 73 74 72 70 68 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -55.4 -55.9 -57.7 -57.4 -57.8 -57.3 -58.2 -58.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.5 1.6 2.0 1.9 1.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 -0.5 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 60 61 62 64 63 56 55 46 41 40 41 45 49 47 43 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 15 16 19 21 27 25 23 19 16 15 14 15 14 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 69 70 62 76 82 31 45 40 50 84 36 1 -23 -13 -15 -46 -46 200 MB DIV 90 64 39 66 84 77 105 50 14 34 4 51 42 56 -17 -33 3 700-850 TADV 6 7 22 23 23 27 12 -4 -15 -32 -3 5 11 18 10 34 31 LAND (KM) 163 202 48 -65 104 444 495 747 988 1086 1221 1228 1102 998 960 980 1101 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 25.0 25.9 27.0 28.0 30.1 31.9 33.1 34.0 34.5 34.6 35.4 36.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.5 83.3 82.2 80.8 79.4 76.2 72.4 68.2 64.3 60.6 57.2 54.5 52.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 15 16 17 18 19 18 16 15 13 11 11 11 13 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 24 9 20 5 13 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 10 CX,CY: 7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 15. 14. 12. 9. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -4. -12. -18. -24. -29. -33. -37. -42. -44. -45. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 2. 3. 10. 8. 5. -1. -5. -8. -9. -8. -10. -13. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 11. 5. -3. -10. -14. -18. -21. -26. -29. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.0 84.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012022 ONE 06/04/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012022 ONE 06/04/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012022 ONE 06/04/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 32 36 39 45 40 35 27 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 30 34 37 43 38 33 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 26 30 33 39 34 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 32 38 33 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT