* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE AL012022 06/04/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 39 43 43 36 28 30 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 31 36 36 40 40 33 25 27 24 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 30 32 32 31 30 27 25 24 23 20 19 19 19 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 31 26 34 40 43 42 51 54 61 50 41 45 49 53 60 62 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 3 2 -1 0 2 -6 -6 -4 -3 0 -2 -4 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 249 256 252 251 258 247 255 263 262 262 280 285 298 298 305 308 305 SST (C) 27.8 28.7 26.5 27.8 27.3 27.7 25.7 24.3 23.1 21.8 21.7 21.4 21.0 19.0 18.2 15.7 14.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 150 122 137 130 136 113 102 94 87 86 85 84 78 77 74 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 141 113 127 119 122 101 91 84 77 77 76 75 72 72 71 70 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -55.9 -58.0 -58.3 -58.6 -59.0 -58.5 -57.6 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 59 61 63 61 64 57 51 40 36 25 19 30 38 45 42 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 16 15 18 21 21 20 26 28 24 23 29 32 26 22 850 MB ENV VOR 71 62 78 84 45 61 32 46 83 53 -5 -56 -109 -74 -61 -28 30 200 MB DIV 58 51 62 88 85 132 64 23 2 -7 6 21 11 -7 -32 -37 -40 700-850 TADV 12 15 21 20 26 25 16 12 1 -35 -22 -2 13 29 14 1 0 LAND (KM) 231 38 -32 153 336 393 557 840 1015 1078 1090 1070 964 859 824 1078 1537 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 26.2 27.3 28.7 30.0 31.8 33.4 34.5 34.5 34.9 35.9 37.0 38.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.8 82.2 80.6 79.1 77.6 74.2 70.3 66.6 62.8 59.7 57.1 54.5 51.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 19 19 18 18 17 16 14 12 12 12 13 16 19 24 26 HEAT CONTENT 10 23 1 14 5 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 17 CX,CY: 12/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 12. 11. 8. 6. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -6. -17. -28. -38. -46. -51. -57. -67. -75. -82. -87. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 5. 5. 3. 12. 14. 7. 5. 12. 14. 6. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 4. 8. 8. 1. -7. -5. -8. -17. -23. -25. -30. -45. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.1 83.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012022 ONE 06/04/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012022 ONE 06/04/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012022 ONE 06/04/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 31 36 36 40 40 33 25 27 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 29 34 34 38 38 31 23 25 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 36 40 40 33 25 27 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 29 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT