* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE AL012022 06/04/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 37 38 36 31 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 30 33 33 34 35 32 27 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 30 32 31 30 28 25 23 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 31 34 37 32 42 47 45 52 57 54 46 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 5 3 2 3 -5 1 -6 0 -1 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 250 249 253 261 250 254 247 252 253 253 287 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 27.4 26.5 26.9 26.9 26.8 25.9 24.2 22.2 20.6 20.4 17.1 15.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 130 120 125 126 126 116 102 91 85 84 76 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 116 109 114 117 115 104 92 83 78 78 71 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 -54.9 -56.9 -57.1 -57.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 60 62 62 63 63 59 50 45 39 19 17 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 83 87 52 48 56 38 80 97 63 -20 -75 -48 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 62 81 71 82 99 78 29 -35 -4 -14 20 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 19 18 11 20 16 -15 -39 -79 -54 -55 -29 -75 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 20 -80 48 222 387 524 734 996 1089 1129 968 949 1096 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.1 26.9 27.7 28.6 29.4 31.7 33.4 34.2 35.0 36.4 38.4 40.7 43.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.0 81.0 79.9 78.3 76.8 72.2 68.2 63.7 59.2 54.5 49.5 44.7 40.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 15 16 19 21 19 19 20 21 22 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 4 3 5 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 17 CX,CY: 12/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 11. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -13. -22. -32. -42. -48. -55. -64. -69. -72. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -4. -9. -17. -23. -26. -32. -39. -43. -45. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 26.1 82.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012022 ONE 06/04/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012022 ONE 06/04/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012022 ONE 06/04/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 30 33 33 34 35 32 27 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 37 37 38 39 36 31 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 32 33 30 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 27 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT