* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE AL012022 06/04/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 44 45 45 43 37 33 34 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 47 48 48 50 50 48 41 37 38 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 45 45 45 44 43 40 37 36 36 32 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 33 37 32 35 45 38 40 50 70 61 58 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 2 2 -2 -3 2 1 1 -11 4 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 247 250 255 249 258 260 257 262 261 271 294 292 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 27.1 27.0 26.7 27.2 26.0 24.2 22.0 20.6 20.5 17.1 14.9 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 127 127 124 130 118 103 90 84 84 76 73 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 115 117 115 121 108 94 83 78 78 72 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -55.9 -55.6 -55.0 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 63 62 66 68 67 64 57 49 34 16 24 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 16 15 16 18 19 18 19 25 24 20 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 83 36 29 54 22 34 79 90 66 34 -52 -81 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 69 97 71 54 92 53 47 22 26 28 -44 -26 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 23 14 17 25 4 15 -10 41 0 -36 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -23 141 301 488 484 675 930 1030 1143 1002 904 1065 1416 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.3 28.1 28.9 30.0 31.1 33.2 34.7 35.7 36.3 38.0 40.7 43.5 46.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.5 79.1 77.6 75.6 73.7 69.0 64.1 59.0 54.4 49.9 45.5 40.3 34.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 18 20 21 22 21 20 19 20 23 24 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 7 7 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 18 CX,CY: 14/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -7. -14. -22. -33. -44. -52. -59. -68. -74. -78. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 1. 9. 7. -0. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -3. -7. -6. -17. -31. -41. -49. -55. -59. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 27.3 80.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012022 ONE 06/04/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.49 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012022 ONE 06/04/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012022 ONE 06/04/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 47 48 48 50 50 48 41 37 38 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 40 40 42 42 40 33 29 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 38 38 36 29 25 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 32 30 23 19 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT