* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP022022 06/15/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 78 83 88 90 89 78 65 56 46 38 31 25 20 20 19 V (KT) LAND 65 72 78 83 88 90 89 78 65 56 46 38 31 25 20 20 19 V (KT) LGEM 65 73 79 82 84 86 81 69 56 47 40 35 31 27 23 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 21 22 21 24 17 20 23 17 9 9 6 7 9 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 0 2 3 -1 -1 -1 -4 -2 -1 -1 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 89 89 90 86 75 78 54 43 50 57 69 84 162 187 187 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.7 27.0 25.6 25.9 25.5 25.2 25.0 24.4 24.2 24.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 149 148 148 152 134 118 121 117 114 111 104 102 109 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -53.0 -52.1 -52.9 -52.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 79 80 78 77 75 76 74 76 73 70 61 57 50 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 21 24 26 30 27 24 22 19 17 15 13 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 94 93 98 96 101 92 96 80 76 65 57 60 48 55 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 93 129 129 124 122 87 58 48 39 20 -3 -17 -37 -6 -21 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 3 0 -2 -6 -5 -5 -5 -1 0 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 313 313 298 296 305 359 468 578 566 588 647 724 777 856 974 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.7 103.1 103.5 104.2 104.9 106.6 108.7 110.4 111.5 112.8 114.2 115.5 116.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 6 7 8 10 10 7 6 6 7 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 16 15 14 12 17 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 10. 7. 4. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 18. 23. 25. 24. 13. 0. -9. -19. -27. -34. -40. -45. -45. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 15.0 102.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022022 BLAS 06/15/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.39 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.79 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.8% 37.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.5% 21.6% 8.0% 5.6% 3.0% 4.2% 1.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 9.6% 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.3% 21.1% 2.7% 1.9% 1.2% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% DTOPS: 36.0% 71.0% 61.0% 49.0% 35.0% 27.0% 5.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022022 BLAS 06/15/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##