* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP022022 06/16/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 74 74 73 67 60 52 44 38 31 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 75 74 74 73 67 60 52 44 38 31 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 75 74 73 70 61 51 43 37 32 28 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 18 18 15 15 14 19 10 7 4 12 18 25 32 30 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 0 3 2 1 -3 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 -4 -4 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 70 58 59 57 59 39 61 55 32 140 186 170 158 145 133 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.8 26.9 25.5 25.7 25.3 24.9 25.1 25.1 24.7 24.9 25.1 25.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 144 143 133 118 119 114 109 112 111 107 109 111 110 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -53.3 -52.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 78 80 77 76 73 72 67 63 56 54 49 45 39 36 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 24 25 26 25 22 19 17 15 13 11 10 9 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 70 75 73 77 86 79 64 65 51 57 45 43 44 32 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 90 93 106 50 41 32 28 38 -9 -18 -30 -19 10 27 15 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -8 -10 -5 -3 -1 -1 0 0 1 0 0 -1 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 291 304 329 355 420 558 541 561 610 676 755 820 891 961 1020 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.9 17.3 17.9 18.3 18.7 18.8 18.9 18.8 18.6 18.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.3 105.1 105.8 107.1 108.3 110.5 111.7 113.0 113.9 114.9 115.8 116.6 117.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 13 12 8 6 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 11 10 15 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. -23. -26. -28. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -14. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -8. -15. -23. -31. -37. -44. -51. -57. -61. -67. -68. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.8 104.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022022 BLAS 06/16/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.25 1.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.13 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 14.9% 12.6% 11.4% 7.2% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 5.7% 4.4% 3.9% 2.4% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 9.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022022 BLAS 06/16/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##