* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP022022 06/17/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 74 71 68 61 54 48 42 35 30 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 74 74 71 68 61 54 48 42 35 30 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 74 73 69 64 54 47 41 37 33 29 26 22 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 17 17 16 14 11 9 4 3 5 12 20 28 28 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 -2 -1 0 1 0 0 -2 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 46 42 49 39 36 47 27 344 289 204 164 164 153 151 140 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.8 26.7 25.6 25.5 25.5 24.7 25.0 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.6 24.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 132 120 118 117 108 111 109 108 108 107 105 105 102 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 79 79 77 73 72 65 62 54 53 49 48 44 43 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 25 24 23 22 20 19 18 16 15 13 12 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 75 73 86 80 75 61 62 57 65 62 62 52 36 42 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 90 50 43 37 41 34 17 -6 -28 -18 5 6 12 3 -8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -13 -6 -4 -4 -2 -3 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 339 361 423 504 540 559 601 676 803 882 932 995 1052 1098 1105 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.0 18.6 18.3 18.3 18.2 18.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.0 107.2 108.4 109.6 110.8 112.6 113.9 115.0 116.3 117.2 118.0 118.8 119.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 12 12 10 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 2 0 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 15 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. -24. -27. -30. -33. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -4. -7. -14. -21. -27. -33. -40. -45. -51. -58. -65. -69. -70. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 16.4 106.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022022 BLAS 06/17/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.15 0.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.23 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 13.1% 11.1% 9.7% 6.2% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 4.8% 3.8% 3.3% 2.1% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022022 BLAS 06/17/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##