* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP032022 06/17/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 39 40 42 47 53 54 55 56 63 65 68 72 73 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 39 40 42 47 53 54 55 56 63 65 68 72 73 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 36 36 35 34 34 34 33 31 32 36 41 49 62 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 22 25 20 21 21 23 25 24 28 27 17 16 11 9 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 0 1 0 3 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 -1 7 SHEAR DIR 105 101 103 99 83 76 69 74 71 66 69 54 48 37 67 39 64 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.4 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.5 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 130 131 131 133 137 144 145 145 150 152 150 151 150 148 135 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.1 -54.3 -54.7 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 5 4 5 3 4 3 4 4 5 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 85 87 87 87 85 90 89 92 89 89 87 87 84 81 78 73 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 10 10 11 12 12 14 15 14 13 13 18 20 25 30 34 850 MB ENV VOR 72 76 92 91 85 87 86 91 72 81 85 79 88 79 106 102 133 200 MB DIV 76 107 114 135 133 125 117 118 145 129 151 136 146 123 117 107 79 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 -2 -4 -4 -7 -6 -2 0 -6 -5 LAND (KM) 165 142 119 120 121 144 196 316 424 412 425 476 508 527 580 608 655 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.2 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.4 89.3 89.3 89.5 89.8 90.3 91.5 93.4 95.1 97.2 99.6 101.7 103.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 3 2 4 8 9 9 11 11 9 9 10 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 10 15 20 23 39 27 21 23 23 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -15. -15. -12. -10. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. 7. 10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 3. 3. 9. 10. 13. 17. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. 5. 2. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 12. 18. 19. 20. 21. 28. 30. 33. 37. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.7 89.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/17/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.76 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 9.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 2.3% 5.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% 1.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/17/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##