* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP032022 06/18/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 30 31 35 37 42 48 49 51 60 61 62 64 66 65 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 30 31 35 37 42 48 49 51 60 61 62 64 66 65 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 28 27 27 28 28 28 29 31 36 40 44 49 55 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 21 23 23 20 24 26 18 17 20 20 18 18 13 13 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 -2 -1 -3 0 2 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 96 91 90 95 86 73 70 63 64 91 85 75 62 48 34 57 54 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 27.4 27.3 28.0 28.8 27.2 25.9 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 137 137 139 143 145 146 149 150 138 136 142 151 134 121 117 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.5 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 -53.6 -54.0 -53.5 -53.9 -53.2 -53.6 -52.7 -53.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 79 78 80 82 84 85 87 87 87 87 86 85 82 76 76 72 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 7 7 9 11 12 12 11 12 18 20 23 27 30 31 850 MB ENV VOR 73 62 69 73 70 65 59 55 54 93 64 93 99 100 109 115 99 200 MB DIV 58 61 93 109 100 79 75 98 87 133 110 125 84 106 97 89 53 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 1 2 3 1 0 0 1 0 -3 -6 -3 -2 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 71 99 135 149 181 272 416 387 393 431 468 487 532 513 495 535 573 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.2 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.3 13.9 14.5 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.8 90.3 90.8 91.3 91.9 93.3 95.1 97.0 99.3 101.6 103.8 105.6 106.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 8 9 10 12 11 10 8 6 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 4 5 8 14 21 19 31 11 10 17 31 7 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. -11. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 4. 4. 13. 14. 15. 17. 19. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 7. 12. 18. 19. 21. 30. 31. 32. 34. 36. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 89.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/18/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.61 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 1.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/18/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##