* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP032022 06/19/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 38 41 47 55 66 72 79 79 80 77 70 67 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 38 41 47 55 66 72 79 79 80 77 70 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 25 25 25 28 33 40 46 53 59 61 57 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 25 26 26 21 19 19 13 12 12 13 9 5 12 8 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 -3 0 -1 -1 -3 0 -2 5 SHEAR DIR 80 77 74 76 78 75 65 70 70 72 58 45 11 51 78 95 255 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.5 29.0 29.2 28.6 27.7 27.3 27.9 27.4 25.8 25.1 25.2 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 142 145 147 149 155 157 150 140 136 142 137 120 113 114 104 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 -53.8 -54.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.0 -53.5 -52.7 -53.3 -52.5 -52.5 -51.8 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 4 4 4 3 5 4 4 4 5 4 3 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 79 80 84 86 87 87 86 86 87 86 83 78 77 72 67 65 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 14 12 11 12 17 19 24 25 29 32 29 28 850 MB ENV VOR 78 63 64 70 45 31 39 64 73 80 84 97 90 101 96 94 74 200 MB DIV 81 74 88 72 71 68 70 127 146 172 150 154 96 100 77 25 -18 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 3 3 0 0 -2 -1 -3 -1 -1 -2 0 -4 -2 -5 LAND (KM) 140 198 266 355 444 451 453 476 486 487 492 512 514 558 581 495 411 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 12.7 12.4 12.1 11.8 11.7 12.0 12.6 13.2 13.8 14.5 15.2 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.9 92.7 93.5 94.4 95.3 96.9 98.8 101.0 102.6 104.1 105.7 107.1 108.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 8 8 10 10 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 7 11 15 26 33 46 26 12 9 19 14 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. 34. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -8. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 4. 4. 6. 13. 16. 21. 21. 23. 23. 18. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 13. 16. 22. 30. 41. 47. 54. 54. 55. 52. 45. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 91.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/19/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 4.0% 16.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.1% 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.3% 5.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/19/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##