* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP032022 06/20/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 33 38 48 59 68 69 77 77 74 67 62 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 33 38 48 59 68 69 77 77 74 67 62 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 25 26 28 33 38 43 48 53 53 50 45 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 22 20 19 22 21 17 16 13 9 8 7 7 12 14 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 1 0 -3 0 0 2 0 -2 -4 -3 -1 4 1 SHEAR DIR 74 73 68 64 69 71 72 89 44 35 5 17 42 126 83 62 66 SST (C) 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.1 28.6 27.5 27.2 27.9 26.7 25.1 24.2 24.2 24.3 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 146 147 148 153 155 155 150 139 135 142 129 112 104 103 104 94 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 84 86 85 86 84 84 84 86 84 81 79 77 74 70 66 65 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 12 11 12 11 13 16 20 20 26 28 30 29 28 24 850 MB ENV VOR 65 49 32 33 38 36 49 65 67 73 81 87 77 97 112 118 104 200 MB DIV 69 46 52 61 56 112 127 160 184 127 80 95 96 123 74 27 31 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 1 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -6 -7 -11 LAND (KM) 328 401 437 431 441 460 508 519 494 471 468 460 490 511 398 413 515 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.9 11.9 12.2 12.5 13.0 13.9 14.9 15.7 16.6 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.9 94.8 95.7 96.6 97.6 99.7 101.5 102.9 104.6 106.0 107.2 108.2 109.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 10 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 9 13 16 23 35 30 45 27 10 8 20 8 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 32. 33. 32. 31. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 8. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 4. 9. 14. 13. 21. 21. 21. 18. 15. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 23. 34. 43. 44. 53. 52. 49. 42. 37. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 93.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/20/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 7.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 2.4% 9.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.0% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 3.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/20/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##