* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP032022 06/22/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 47 49 56 63 74 77 77 71 66 59 50 44 37 31 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 47 49 56 63 74 77 77 71 66 59 50 44 37 31 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 41 41 44 49 55 58 57 54 49 45 40 35 29 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 25 20 15 16 9 11 12 21 15 12 5 3 7 5 2 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 1 1 0 -1 -2 -5 -6 0 -4 -3 0 -1 2 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 47 59 57 51 31 22 12 45 61 60 38 12 86 164 75 105 101 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.2 26.9 25.5 24.7 25.2 24.8 24.1 23.8 22.5 22.0 20.6 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 149 146 145 146 132 117 109 114 110 102 100 87 82 68 71 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 85 86 85 83 83 83 83 78 72 68 63 67 61 61 58 58 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 23 21 24 27 33 35 37 35 36 34 32 30 27 24 850 MB ENV VOR 40 45 51 54 45 70 70 99 101 115 116 136 126 124 96 93 80 200 MB DIV 118 125 139 141 136 105 85 119 84 88 21 32 -20 -35 -33 0 -15 700-850 TADV -5 -1 -2 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -4 -3 -9 -1 -7 -1 -1 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 481 477 463 451 453 478 514 600 604 583 638 700 750 830 932 1057 1250 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.6 16.3 16.8 17.6 18.3 18.8 19.4 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.3 104.0 104.8 105.5 107.2 108.6 110.0 111.3 112.7 114.3 115.8 117.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 10 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 26 20 15 12 11 15 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 12. 9. 6. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 9. 19. 24. 27. 24. 23. 19. 15. 12. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 9. 16. 23. 34. 37. 37. 31. 26. 19. 10. 4. -3. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.2 102.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/22/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 131.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.86 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 5.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5% 14.8% 10.8% Logistic: 0.1% 2.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.8% 3.1% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.0% 6.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 5.8% 6.0% 4.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 13.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 8.0% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/22/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##