* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP032022 06/24/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 53 59 63 69 69 69 62 59 50 44 35 27 20 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 48 53 59 63 69 69 69 62 59 50 44 35 27 20 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 49 51 54 56 55 53 50 44 38 32 27 24 20 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 7 11 13 14 15 9 5 1 5 8 3 11 10 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -2 0 0 -3 -6 -1 5 4 1 4 4 4 4 1 SHEAR DIR 349 4 45 86 90 77 54 89 47 194 204 238 226 225 245 232 234 SST (C) 27.1 26.8 26.1 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.9 25.1 24.6 23.4 22.1 22.2 21.3 21.5 22.5 21.8 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 134 130 123 118 117 115 121 113 109 97 83 84 74 76 86 78 68 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -52.9 -52.4 -53.2 -52.6 -53.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 83 83 80 79 77 69 69 64 63 58 56 51 49 46 41 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 26 27 29 29 30 28 29 27 26 22 20 18 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 46 44 50 73 78 91 92 107 110 126 104 102 94 84 72 52 35 200 MB DIV 80 99 92 123 125 100 68 49 8 -14 -27 -5 6 0 4 -20 -10 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 -2 -7 -2 -6 -3 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 386 422 465 503 542 582 548 546 636 709 861 1021 1185 1328 1444 1526 1543 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.7 18.3 19.0 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.1 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.9 108.6 109.2 109.7 110.7 111.9 113.2 115.1 117.2 119.5 121.9 124.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 5 5 6 7 8 10 11 11 11 10 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -4. -8. -12. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 11. 9. 11. 7. 5. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 18. 24. 24. 24. 17. 14. 5. -1. -10. -18. -25. -33. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.6 107.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/24/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 23.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 12.4% 3.9% 2.4% 0.8% 1.9% 1.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 11.8% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 10.0% 34.0% 19.0% 10.0% 10.0% 13.0% 9.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/24/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##