* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP032022 06/24/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 69 73 77 77 70 62 52 40 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 69 73 77 77 70 62 52 40 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 62 63 64 62 58 51 42 34 28 23 19 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 6 6 9 9 13 4 4 3 4 6 12 13 11 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 0 0 -6 -3 0 3 0 2 0 0 3 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 68 83 70 60 60 56 74 88 222 223 243 179 219 205 228 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.6 25.3 25.0 25.1 25.9 25.0 24.8 23.3 22.1 20.9 20.8 21.9 21.8 21.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 117 114 111 112 121 113 111 96 83 71 70 81 79 70 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 81 80 80 79 71 70 65 66 61 57 53 48 45 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 26 27 29 30 31 30 29 27 24 22 19 17 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 60 64 75 83 78 102 110 121 102 97 88 70 63 56 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 136 138 111 108 100 68 41 -10 -21 -22 0 1 -16 -11 -9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 0 0 -3 -3 -9 -1 -8 -3 -4 0 2 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 474 501 529 557 549 525 562 666 754 912 1039 1205 1394 1573 1676 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.0 22.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.7 109.2 109.7 110.2 110.7 112.1 113.7 115.7 117.9 120.2 122.7 125.1 127.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 8 9 10 11 12 11 11 10 9 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -23. -28. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 5. 0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 22. 22. 15. 7. -3. -15. -25. -34. -41. -49. -50. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.0 108.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/24/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.18 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.79 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 39.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.0% 26.3% 12.1% 8.1% 2.5% 3.0% 0.9% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.8% 22.1% 4.1% 2.7% 0.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 20.0% 41.0% 30.0% 20.0% 17.0% 16.0% 8.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/24/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##