* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP032022 06/25/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 47 49 47 43 39 31 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 48 47 49 47 43 39 31 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 48 47 45 44 40 35 28 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 6 5 5 5 7 1 2 5 10 10 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -1 -1 4 8 7 5 3 5 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 34 32 44 80 98 77 210 259 270 192 221 204 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 25.5 25.4 24.8 24.2 24.5 23.4 21.9 20.8 20.7 21.4 21.8 21.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 118 116 110 104 108 96 81 70 69 76 80 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 73 70 71 70 64 62 57 51 45 41 37 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 26 29 29 27 28 24 21 19 17 14 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 70 65 75 82 85 90 73 82 69 53 42 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 56 56 41 29 -6 -26 -7 3 0 3 -27 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -3 -4 -1 0 -3 1 0 -5 5 0 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 505 513 537 563 599 670 770 889 1016 1175 1347 1550 1710 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.9 20.4 21.1 21.7 22.2 22.6 22.8 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.2 112.1 112.9 113.7 114.4 116.1 118.1 120.0 122.5 124.9 127.1 129.4 131.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 9 10 11 12 11 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -20. -24. -27. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 1. 1. -0. 1. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -17. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -1. -3. -7. -11. -19. -26. -33. -40. -47. -54. -56. -56. -58. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.5 111.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/25/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.20 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/25/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##