* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP032022 06/28/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 26 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 27 25 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 6 10 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 2 3 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 266 275 252 223 237 223 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.8 21.2 20.7 20.5 20.3 20.1 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 79 73 68 66 63 60 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 46 44 41 41 36 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 15 14 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 43 31 22 15 -17 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -19 0 -2 -17 -16 4 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 6 7 5 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 808 840 881 934 994 1094 1199 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.5 22.9 23.2 23.5 24.0 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.0 121.0 121.9 122.8 123.7 125.1 126.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 8 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -8. -11. -17. -22. -27. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -18. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -17. -25. -33. -37. -41. -44. -47. -51. -56. -62. -67. -72. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.1 120.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032022 CELIA 06/28/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032022 CELIA 06/28/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##