* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ATCFTEST CP882022 07/02/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 31 29 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 31 29 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 33 31 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 28 32 36 39 44 48 57 68 68 72 77 69 64 57 56 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 7 4 0 3 -3 -6 -15 -15 -23 -30 -17 -9 -4 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 249 256 258 257 258 263 265 268 281 277 274 263 266 265 275 272 277 SST (C) 24.8 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.6 25.9 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.4 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 112 116 116 116 120 123 122 122 123 126 129 132 134 137 139 139 141 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.3 -56.1 -56.1 -56.0 -55.9 -56.1 -56.3 -55.9 -54.9 -55.1 -54.8 -55.6 -55.1 -55.5 -55.0 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 25 24 23 24 23 21 21 21 27 32 38 42 48 52 57 60 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -25 -25 -32 -42 -43 -30 -25 -20 -17 -8 -13 -16 -25 -25 -33 -38 200 MB DIV -20 -27 -46 -32 -27 -20 -4 -4 1 -37 -29 16 21 19 3 5 16 700-850 TADV 17 14 13 11 9 11 2 0 -9 -8 -10 -4 -7 -2 1 -5 3 LAND (KM) 704 552 404 275 156 20 30 75 114 263 417 553 678 801 919 1019 1130 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.1 19.5 20.3 20.9 21.2 21.3 21.2 21.1 20.9 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 148.5 149.8 151.1 152.2 153.3 155.5 157.5 159.4 161.2 162.7 164.2 165.5 166.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 11 10 10 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 5 6 9 14 17 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 15. 15. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -10. -21. -37. -52. -65. -74. -79. -82. -86. -94. -98. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -19. -28. -42. -55. -68. -78. -83. -86. -89. -95. -99. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.4 148.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP882022 ATCFTEST 07/02/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.37 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -30.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.01 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.99 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 348.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 90.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP882022 ATCFTEST 07/02/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##