* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE EP042022 07/05/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 90 90 88 87 87 89 83 78 72 64 58 52 48 42 38 V (KT) LAND 90 89 90 90 88 87 87 89 83 78 72 64 58 52 48 42 38 V (KT) LGEM 90 91 92 92 92 89 87 82 75 65 56 48 41 36 31 26 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 14 15 18 13 10 1 1 3 3 4 9 10 12 13 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -3 -1 0 0 -5 -1 3 5 3 2 -1 -5 0 1 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 23 18 6 7 19 5 352 310 155 217 212 195 199 242 239 251 243 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.1 28.9 28.2 27.9 27.6 26.2 25.0 24.3 23.0 23.0 22.2 22.5 22.7 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 153 156 154 147 144 141 127 114 107 94 94 84 87 91 94 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 70 70 70 69 67 64 61 59 53 52 53 51 47 45 43 41 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 16 17 16 20 21 23 21 20 19 16 13 11 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 19 18 23 34 22 33 43 53 49 41 24 18 2 -20 -35 -47 -37 200 MB DIV 43 27 10 29 61 28 2 14 -16 -4 6 10 -19 -24 -33 -41 -14 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -4 -5 -6 -1 -1 2 -2 -2 1 1 7 11 12 14 13 LAND (KM) 311 329 364 419 465 611 744 792 914 1038 1213 1404 1651 1859 2034 1954 1611 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.9 17.6 18.2 18.9 19.5 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.8 105.1 106.2 107.3 109.6 111.7 114.1 116.7 119.4 122.2 125.4 128.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 14 16 14 11 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 11 13 13 14 13 8 7 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -0. -5. -10. -15. -19. -24. -28. -31. -36. -40. -45. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -6. -2. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 10. 8. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -1. -7. -12. -18. -26. -32. -38. -42. -48. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 14.9 102.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/05/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.21 1.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.22 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 323.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.54 -2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 12.3% 12.0% 11.0% 7.4% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 5.0% 4.2% 3.8% 2.5% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 13.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/05/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##