* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE EP042022 07/06/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 87 85 84 75 66 56 47 39 32 32 33 34 35 34 33 V (KT) LAND 90 89 87 85 84 75 66 56 47 39 32 32 33 34 35 34 33 V (KT) LGEM 90 88 85 82 78 67 57 48 40 35 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 4 8 7 1 3 3 4 6 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 4 10 6 2 0 -3 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 356 305 313 316 26 159 293 232 239 228 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.1 25.8 24.8 23.4 23.1 23.0 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 138 138 136 123 114 99 96 95 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 59 59 56 50 44 38 37 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 18 19 20 18 17 14 12 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 36 36 43 47 42 32 36 42 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 4 0 0 17 -1 -8 -15 -17 -15 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 2 1 2 9 0 3 -1 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 590 672 703 729 780 937 1131 1383 1651 1949 2042 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.7 111.8 113.2 114.5 117.5 120.9 124.7 128.3 131.8 135.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 17 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 4 4 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -12. -19. -26. -32. -37. -40. -42. -44. -47. -49. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -15. -24. -34. -43. -51. -58. -58. -57. -56. -55. -56. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 16.3 109.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042022 BONNIE 07/06/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.07 0.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.77 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 490.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.35 -1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 19.7% 14.5% 12.3% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 2.7% 2.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 7.5% 5.6% 4.3% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 10.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042022 BONNIE 07/06/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##