* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052022 07/11/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 69 74 77 80 77 73 64 53 44 37 30 26 20 18 17 V (KT) LAND 60 65 69 74 77 80 77 73 64 53 44 37 30 26 20 18 17 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 67 69 71 71 68 61 51 41 32 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 5 5 4 3 6 5 8 11 18 25 25 16 16 30 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 0 -1 2 1 2 8 3 2 1 3 9 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 349 33 39 85 10 344 322 293 239 239 227 241 275 288 312 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.0 24.7 24.5 24.8 24.5 24.1 24.7 24.7 25.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 144 141 139 137 125 111 108 112 109 105 110 110 115 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -54.2 -54.7 -54.8 -54.6 -54.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 -0.4 -0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 4 4 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 70 71 70 69 66 63 60 56 52 47 43 39 34 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 16 14 12 11 11 9 7 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 9 5 6 9 -1 0 0 -14 -13 -6 -8 -10 -22 -29 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 30 27 29 37 39 45 43 22 11 -6 -20 -25 -36 -24 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 7 7 5 1 1 1 2 9 8 7 12 12 6 16 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1385 1467 1557 1645 1739 1922 2089 2255 2113 1846 1539 1253 1003 764 532 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.3 16.0 16.7 17.5 18.3 18.6 18.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.9 121.2 122.5 123.8 125.1 127.5 130.1 132.8 135.0 137.4 140.2 142.9 145.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 12 12 13 12 12 13 13 12 11 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 11 12 11 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 4. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -2. -4. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 17. 13. 4. -7. -16. -23. -30. -34. -40. -42. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.6 119.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052022 DARBY 07/11/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.38 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.88 10.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 9.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 6.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 -6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.8% 47.1% 41.6% 31.7% 25.4% 24.1% 15.6% 0.0% Logistic: 21.7% 32.4% 26.4% 15.6% 5.8% 4.4% 0.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 2.8% 4.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.5% 27.9% 23.1% 16.0% 10.5% 9.6% 5.4% 0.2% DTOPS: 23.0% 44.0% 33.0% 21.0% 20.0% 18.0% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052022 DARBY 07/11/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##