* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052022 07/11/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 84 86 87 83 77 66 56 45 35 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 81 84 86 87 83 77 66 56 45 35 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 81 85 85 83 77 68 57 46 36 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 2 1 2 3 4 5 9 16 27 29 27 24 36 40 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 0 2 2 6 4 2 2 3 4 0 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 53 71 254 303 322 295 287 287 240 240 249 281 299 309 308 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.3 26.8 25.1 24.7 24.9 24.8 24.4 24.5 24.7 25.1 25.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 144 141 139 138 133 115 111 113 112 108 108 111 116 121 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -53.5 -54.0 -54.5 -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 -55.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 3 3 5 5 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 69 69 68 67 63 62 57 55 50 47 43 36 33 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 13 13 11 9 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 6 6 7 3 -1 6 -7 -8 -15 -14 -20 -21 -31 -33 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 22 28 44 48 42 47 46 5 -18 -22 -26 -8 -10 -12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 5 2 0 0 3 2 4 11 6 6 8 8 11 11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1476 1561 1653 1743 1839 2022 2193 2229 1952 1666 1375 1109 871 583 270 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.1 18.4 18.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.2 122.5 123.8 125.1 126.4 129.0 131.6 134.0 136.5 139.1 141.8 144.3 146.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 13 13 11 12 14 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 12 10 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -8. -12. -15. -17. -20. -23. -25. -27. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. -2. -5. -8. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 11. 12. 8. 2. -9. -19. -30. -40. -50. -55. -62. -67. -67. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 14.5 121.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052022 DARBY 07/11/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.23 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 9.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.94 10.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 6.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 5.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 337.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.53 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 41.9% 37.6% 37.4% 28.3% 23.7% 20.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 23.6% 25.9% 27.3% 17.0% 6.3% 4.4% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 22.2% 21.5% 21.7% 15.1% 10.1% 8.3% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 34.0% 33.0% 21.0% 15.0% 11.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052022 DARBY 07/11/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##