* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052022 07/13/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 87 82 78 75 67 57 45 36 28 20 18 18 19 20 21 21 V (KT) LAND 95 87 82 78 75 67 57 45 36 28 20 18 18 19 20 21 21 V (KT) LGEM 95 87 81 76 71 62 53 44 36 29 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 3 3 6 13 20 26 26 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 0 1 4 4 2 -3 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 117 144 146 179 218 227 236 259 280 308 300 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.5 26.6 25.8 25.7 25.8 25.2 25.0 24.8 25.8 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 131 123 122 122 116 114 113 123 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 64 62 61 60 58 55 51 45 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 13 12 9 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 17 9 4 -1 -4 -9 -13 -22 -21 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 26 31 21 4 -7 -8 -35 -35 -32 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 0 1 1 4 2 5 1 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2292 2337 2193 2043 1893 1617 1353 1081 779 485 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.0 17.0 16.9 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 132.0 133.4 134.7 136.0 137.4 139.9 142.3 144.9 147.9 151.1 154.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 13 13 12 12 13 15 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. -24. -30. -35. -38. -41. -43. -45. -47. -49. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -16. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -17. -20. -28. -38. -50. -59. -67. -75. -77. -77. -76. -75. -74. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 14.6 132.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052022 DARBY 07/13/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 479.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052022 DARBY 07/13/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##