* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062022 07/16/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 64 73 82 90 102 107 102 97 89 81 70 59 50 43 36 29 V (KT) LAND 55 64 73 82 90 102 107 102 97 89 81 70 59 50 43 36 29 V (KT) LGEM 55 65 74 83 91 103 107 101 89 76 65 54 45 37 31 26 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 8 9 16 17 18 24 25 12 8 6 10 1 3 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -6 -3 0 0 0 -3 -2 -3 0 -2 -1 3 1 6 2 SHEAR DIR 51 63 79 50 41 60 50 26 27 33 5 334 305 34 246 135 162 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.0 27.9 26.8 25.9 25.1 23.6 22.3 22.2 21.9 22.4 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 159 158 158 160 155 144 132 123 115 99 85 84 81 87 84 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.1 -52.7 -51.9 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 76 76 78 78 79 80 76 75 76 72 67 64 58 55 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 19 20 23 26 29 28 31 32 32 29 27 24 21 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR -3 8 24 14 21 34 28 30 45 47 44 56 49 41 41 45 52 200 MB DIV 100 108 119 145 130 145 152 124 68 84 42 -20 -27 -6 -25 -15 -18 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 0 -3 -3 -4 -7 -1 -4 6 -4 2 -3 3 -3 LAND (KM) 460 443 434 444 462 521 630 689 762 855 954 1074 1146 1259 1406 1619 1812 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.3 16.0 16.6 17.2 17.9 18.6 19.4 20.3 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.3 104.1 104.8 105.6 106.4 108.4 110.2 112.6 115.0 117.2 119.5 121.7 123.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 10 10 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 29 31 28 21 17 18 13 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 5. 2. -2. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 16. 22. 23. 22. 18. 13. 9. 6. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 11. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 18. 27. 35. 47. 52. 47. 42. 34. 26. 15. 4. -5. -12. -19. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.8 103.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062022 ESTELLE 07/16/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 10.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 12.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.80 13.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.43 6.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 11.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 7.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -10.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.22 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 5.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 50% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 35.3% 68.5% 58.1% 50.7% 29.5% 50.5% 38.0% 12.5% Logistic: 15.1% 36.5% 20.9% 14.9% 10.5% 9.9% 10.5% 2.2% Bayesian: 43.8% 37.8% 46.1% 26.2% 11.9% 6.4% 1.0% 0.0% Consensus: 31.4% 47.6% 41.7% 30.6% 17.3% 22.3% 16.5% 4.9% DTOPS: 52.0% 76.0% 66.0% 51.0% 29.0% 66.0% 57.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062022 ESTELLE 07/16/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##