* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062022 07/19/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 66 67 67 66 61 53 44 38 31 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 65 66 67 67 66 61 53 44 38 31 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 64 63 62 60 56 49 41 34 28 24 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 14 11 10 3 3 3 4 2 6 3 6 8 6 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -6 -6 -2 0 4 -1 2 -2 6 3 6 7 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 350 352 351 360 10 35 19 348 326 284 252 194 209 203 178 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 26.8 26.1 25.6 25.4 24.4 23.0 21.8 21.5 21.3 22.0 21.9 21.8 21.8 22.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 132 125 120 118 108 93 80 76 73 80 79 78 79 81 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 71 74 72 72 70 65 65 58 57 52 47 40 36 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 25 25 26 26 25 22 19 18 15 14 12 10 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 16 19 36 36 39 47 58 42 37 27 36 35 42 35 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 72 56 67 72 36 -6 -22 27 10 -4 -22 -12 -3 -8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -8 -5 0 1 -4 1 0 1 2 8 4 4 0 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 608 656 722 769 811 933 1033 1108 1237 1373 1505 1585 1662 1778 1943 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.5 18.7 19.1 19.4 20.2 21.2 22.2 22.8 23.2 23.4 23.4 23.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.0 114.2 115.3 116.5 117.6 119.9 122.2 124.1 126.0 127.7 129.2 130.4 131.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 6 8 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -19. -22. -27. -31. -36. -40. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -12. -21. -27. -34. -40. -47. -53. -59. -61. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.2 113.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062022 ESTELLE 07/19/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.20 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 215.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 6.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062022 ESTELLE 07/19/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##