* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062022 07/19/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 52 49 40 32 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 52 49 40 32 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 52 49 46 38 31 26 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 2 3 2 5 6 4 3 9 6 9 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 4 2 2 0 0 0 2 5 5 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 337 185 171 342 8 66 296 305 268 269 237 226 207 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.1 24.4 23.8 23.4 22.2 21.6 21.5 21.6 22.3 22.0 21.9 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 115 107 101 97 84 77 75 76 83 80 80 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 72 69 69 66 59 56 52 49 47 42 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 21 22 21 19 16 15 13 12 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 26 31 23 23 48 39 44 25 39 36 43 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 68 57 23 8 -21 2 -12 -4 -29 -21 -15 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -11 -5 2 -3 2 1 5 4 5 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 737 772 824 888 945 1039 1154 1282 1410 1546 1636 1731 1839 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.8 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.8 22.4 22.8 23.0 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.3 117.5 118.6 119.7 120.8 122.9 124.8 126.5 128.0 129.5 130.8 132.3 134.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -19. -22. -27. -31. -35. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -17. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -13. -15. -18. -19. -21. -19. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -6. -15. -23. -29. -35. -40. -46. -51. -58. -60. -62. -65. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.3 116.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062022 ESTELLE 07/19/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.11 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.12 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.8% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 7.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062022 ESTELLE 07/19/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##