* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072022 07/26/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 40 43 52 61 74 84 94 99 95 89 84 79 73 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 40 43 52 61 74 84 94 99 95 89 84 79 73 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 39 41 45 51 58 67 75 79 74 63 54 47 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 20 20 18 17 13 13 12 8 7 7 3 3 6 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 1 0 4 2 2 3 1 4 5 5 5 1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 51 45 36 42 43 24 39 11 335 25 7 76 354 75 307 331 319 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 27.7 25.7 24.5 24.3 23.9 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 153 153 155 154 158 156 154 153 141 120 107 105 101 86 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -53.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 69 70 72 73 71 69 73 72 72 73 77 77 78 75 70 65 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 16 15 17 16 19 21 26 30 34 37 35 33 30 28 25 850 MB ENV VOR 14 16 19 21 22 27 40 41 48 55 42 34 20 19 21 27 28 200 MB DIV 41 58 82 78 82 81 109 95 113 89 122 83 47 51 9 24 7 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 0 0 -4 -3 -9 -11 -5 -10 -6 0 6 4 4 -1 LAND (KM) 656 676 686 725 771 847 931 1024 1055 1081 1125 1128 1075 1159 1269 1315 1298 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.2 12.2 12.1 12.5 12.8 13.2 14.2 14.8 15.4 16.6 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.0 104.0 105.0 105.8 106.6 108.5 110.4 112.1 114.0 115.7 117.2 118.7 120.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 9 9 8 10 10 8 9 11 10 9 9 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 32 31 24 20 18 19 21 23 20 21 17 8 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 29. 28. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 5. 8. 15. 21. 27. 29. 24. 19. 15. 12. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 17. 26. 39. 49. 59. 64. 60. 54. 49. 44. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.7 103.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072022 FRANK 07/26/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.03 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.25 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.21 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.90 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 13.2% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 13.3% 17.4% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.5% 4.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 1.6% 4.6% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 4.9% 7.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072022 FRANK 07/26/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##