* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082022 07/28/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 46 47 49 50 51 51 47 46 47 47 46 45 44 43 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 46 47 49 50 51 51 47 46 47 47 46 45 44 43 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 45 46 46 46 44 41 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 9 10 14 16 18 22 25 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 2 0 2 0 0 0 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 120 125 105 98 84 85 95 89 77 91 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 142 143 143 141 140 140 139 138 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 56 56 57 56 58 61 64 65 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 107 110 113 113 126 114 112 90 87 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 42 58 71 76 66 51 45 74 87 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 0 0 2 4 5 5 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1259 1327 1396 1468 1540 1599 1620 1664 1639 1607 1583 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.4 15.1 14.7 14.3 14.1 14.1 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.5 120.2 120.8 121.4 121.9 122.5 122.8 123.3 123.4 123.4 123.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 5 2 2 2 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 11 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.7 119.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/28/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.46 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 256.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 -3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 20.7% 18.7% 17.6% 10.8% 17.1% 14.6% 9.8% Logistic: 2.2% 5.6% 5.4% 1.4% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 8.8% 8.0% 6.3% 3.9% 5.9% 4.9% 3.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082022 GEORGETTE 07/28/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##