* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072022 07/29/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 66 75 83 93 99 96 88 75 64 52 42 34 27 26 26 V (KT) LAND 55 59 66 75 83 93 99 96 88 75 64 52 42 34 27 26 26 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 64 69 75 83 86 81 69 56 44 35 28 23 20 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 3 2 0 7 5 5 4 4 7 4 7 8 10 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 0 -1 -2 1 1 -1 -5 1 0 3 0 0 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 350 323 334 65 24 6 39 54 34 328 287 271 237 259 290 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.4 29.0 28.5 28.1 27.8 26.7 25.2 24.3 22.6 21.5 21.1 20.9 20.9 21.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 155 150 145 143 131 115 106 88 76 72 69 69 69 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 76 75 77 75 76 74 70 70 68 65 65 62 58 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 25 27 30 32 35 35 33 29 26 23 21 18 16 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 30 29 34 39 28 56 94 101 81 79 67 58 39 16 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 100 105 121 117 91 82 125 73 52 21 6 12 11 17 1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -11 -8 -2 -6 0 0 0 0 -1 7 -2 3 3 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 993 1027 1024 1000 987 1005 1005 1034 1100 1124 1171 1243 1309 1301 1316 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.9 15.5 16.7 18.0 19.3 20.4 21.6 22.7 23.8 24.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.8 112.7 113.5 114.4 115.2 117.0 118.7 120.4 122.2 123.8 125.2 126.6 128.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 21 18 15 12 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 61.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -3. -8. -13. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 13. 16. 15. 10. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 11. 20. 28. 38. 44. 41. 33. 20. 9. -3. -13. -21. -28. -29. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.3 111.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072022 FRANK 07/29/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.54 9.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 7.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.73 11.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.85 12.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 10.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 6.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -9.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 4.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 47% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.1% 59.8% 54.6% 45.6% 27.7% 46.5% 33.1% 11.6% Logistic: 5.8% 25.6% 15.3% 9.3% 1.6% 15.6% 19.9% 0.9% Bayesian: 11.9% 18.5% 19.3% 6.5% 0.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 12.6% 34.6% 29.7% 20.5% 9.9% 21.1% 17.7% 4.2% DTOPS: 33.0% 66.0% 52.0% 46.0% 28.0% 35.0% 24.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072022 FRANK 07/29/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##