* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072022 07/29/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 65 71 78 87 90 86 77 66 55 45 35 28 20 20 20 V (KT) LAND 55 58 65 71 78 87 90 86 77 66 55 45 35 28 20 20 20 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 60 64 68 74 76 72 62 51 41 34 28 24 20 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 3 0 3 5 7 6 4 7 5 3 9 13 17 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -2 0 1 -3 -3 -4 0 0 -1 0 -1 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 316 279 351 110 72 66 93 74 335 331 258 242 254 280 278 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.2 27.3 25.9 24.7 23.5 22.0 21.6 21.1 21.2 21.1 21.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 149 147 147 137 122 110 97 82 77 72 72 70 70 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 75 75 74 74 73 71 70 66 65 64 61 62 59 55 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 26 29 28 31 32 33 31 29 27 24 21 18 17 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 23 34 39 29 46 64 96 94 90 62 69 43 28 7 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 86 111 124 95 78 92 78 57 18 22 -3 7 4 15 -7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -6 -2 -1 0 3 0 0 -2 3 0 2 3 8 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1003 989 973 962 966 982 998 1059 1077 1120 1187 1273 1279 1274 1296 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.7 16.3 17.6 18.8 20.0 21.2 22.4 23.6 24.7 25.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.6 113.4 114.2 115.1 116.0 117.8 119.5 121.2 122.8 124.4 125.9 127.3 128.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 6 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 16 14 12 11 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 53.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -20. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 6. 1. -2. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 10. 15. 13. 8. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 23. 32. 35. 31. 22. 11. 0. -10. -20. -27. -35. -35. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.1 112.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072022 FRANK 07/29/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.68 7.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.89 9.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 7.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -6.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.17 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 39.0% 35.2% 25.1% 15.0% 31.4% 16.6% 0.0% Logistic: 7.4% 30.2% 18.4% 11.8% 3.4% 13.4% 9.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.8% 5.2% 3.6% 1.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.5% 24.8% 19.1% 12.7% 6.2% 15.0% 8.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 34.0% 66.0% 45.0% 33.0% 23.0% 42.0% 17.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072022 FRANK 07/29/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##