* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072022 08/02/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 31 26 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 36 31 26 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 37 34 30 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 12 13 11 9 17 14 15 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 3 1 0 -3 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 315 314 315 311 280 241 191 194 189 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.6 21.5 21.2 20.8 20.7 20.7 20.0 19.2 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 78 77 73 69 68 68 61 61 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 58 57 55 49 43 42 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 18 17 16 14 13 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 -12 -10 -1 -11 -24 -17 0 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 9 0 -15 -14 18 -2 2 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -1 0 0 0 1 -1 -14 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1051 1070 1099 1091 1048 914 777 622 449 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.5 25.3 26.2 27.0 29.1 31.1 32.7 34.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.4 125.1 125.7 126.3 126.8 127.5 127.5 127.0 126.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -11. -12. -14. -15. -17. -21. -26. -31. -36. -39. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -16. -17. -17. -18. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -14. -20. -21. -20. -19. -18. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -18. -24. -29. -37. -48. -53. -57. -61. -66. -72. -78. -84. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 23.6 124.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072022 FRANK 08/02/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072022 FRANK 08/02/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##