* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092022 08/06/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 44 48 54 59 60 60 59 55 55 56 57 58 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 44 48 54 59 60 60 59 55 55 56 57 58 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 34 36 37 38 38 38 37 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 10 10 10 9 11 14 12 9 7 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 0 -5 1 -4 -1 -2 -4 -5 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 255 252 283 264 195 177 172 190 175 160 193 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.2 26.1 25.4 24.5 23.6 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 152 153 155 151 145 136 124 116 107 98 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 67 70 70 70 70 68 63 57 53 53 48 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 16 15 18 20 20 21 20 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -17 1 3 -3 19 41 38 37 46 50 35 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 47 49 41 37 24 7 29 3 -20 -36 -15 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -5 -10 -5 -3 0 3 2 0 1 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 508 512 522 530 566 594 522 577 603 671 755 842 979 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 18 14 15 16 10 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 25. 25. 23. 23. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 8. 12. 13. 14. 12. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 18. 24. 29. 30. 30. 29. 25. 25. 26. 27. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.1 105.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092022 NINE 08/06/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.57 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.14 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 16.6% 15.4% 14.3% 0.0% 15.2% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 8.3% 5.1% 2.3% 1.1% 2.1% 1.4% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 8.8% 6.9% 5.5% 0.4% 5.8% 4.9% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 27.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092022 NINE 08/06/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##