* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092022 08/06/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 37 43 52 56 61 62 60 57 54 51 48 45 41 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 37 43 52 56 61 62 60 57 54 51 48 45 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 32 33 36 38 39 39 38 35 33 30 28 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 8 6 6 5 11 3 5 6 2 3 7 9 13 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 -4 -1 -4 -4 -1 -4 -1 -3 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 261 246 264 258 247 175 162 62 40 84 152 206 297 272 278 261 256 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.5 27.9 26.9 25.9 25.1 24.0 23.0 22.6 22.3 21.8 21.7 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 153 155 154 150 143 132 122 114 102 91 86 84 79 77 83 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 68 70 69 70 70 70 66 60 56 51 47 43 45 42 38 35 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 17 16 18 21 20 21 22 21 20 19 16 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -3 0 -6 3 26 53 43 44 50 36 38 27 24 22 29 20 200 MB DIV 55 62 52 55 36 9 36 18 -20 -36 -19 -23 -19 -16 -8 -29 -15 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -6 -6 -5 -3 3 0 1 2 5 2 8 2 2 2 -1 LAND (KM) 508 515 523 565 619 538 500 529 565 690 776 863 916 1034 1220 1391 1480 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.3 15.8 16.4 16.9 18.4 19.8 20.8 21.6 22.3 22.9 23.4 23.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.3 107.3 108.2 109.3 110.3 111.9 113.5 115.1 116.6 118.5 120.5 122.1 123.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 8 9 9 9 6 6 8 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 15 15 16 13 10 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 23. 24. 24. 22. 19. 16. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 8. 9. 12. 14. 11. 9. 7. 4. 1. -0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 7. 13. 22. 26. 31. 32. 30. 27. 24. 21. 18. 15. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 106.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092022 NINE 08/06/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.65 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.09 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 16.9% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 4.3% 2.4% 1.0% 0.3% 1.4% 1.1% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 7.4% 6.2% 0.3% 0.1% 5.7% 0.4% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 7.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 5.0% 11.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092022 NINE 08/06/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##